For months, XRP has been inching toward a pivotal moment. Trading at $1.5090, the cryptocurrency is consolidating just under the $1.65 macro resistance barrier that has dictated chart movements since its rebound from lows around $0.93.
Crypto analyst CasiTrades (@CasiTrades) recently shared an in-depth technical analysis of the asset’s current setup, highlighting two potential trajectories for its next phase.
A Structure Running Out of Room
On the 4-hour timeframe, XRP has carved out a secondary, tighter consolidation zone directly underneath the $1.65 ceiling, which is now nearing its breakout point. According to CasiTrades, this compression has built up over roughly two weeks following the most recent test of that threshold.
The $1.65 mark aligns with the macro-level .618 Fibonacci retracement, a milestone she views as essential for validating the overarching trend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) displays a narrowing triangle formation that mirrors the price compression.
With momentum subsiding since September’s rally, the dual-line RSI currently reads 52.89 and 52.45—a neutral stance that fails to provide a definitive directional bias by itself.
Two Paths Forward
CasiTrades points out the possibility of a final leg up to roughly $1.70 to wrap up the present wave formation, returning XRP to its August high. Should it attain that mark, she intends to monitor the RSI for “another degree of bearish divergence to confirm the larger top” prior to the onset of a Wave 2 correction.
Chart markers place the .618 extension target at $1.7052 and the .5 level at $1.6568 within that region. At the same time, she highlights an alternative outcome: XRP “has a habit of failing its final 5th waves and heading straight into correction,” meaning a fresh high is not strictly necessary to finish the structure.
Because the $1.65 resistance level has already undergone testing, CasiTrades notes that her trading strategy remains consistent whichever route materializes.
Wave 2 Support Levels
Should a downturn take hold, CasiTrades is monitoring $1.27 (the .618 retracement) and $1.10 (the .854 retracement) as vital floors. She warns that Wave 2 could turn out to be “aggressive and fast,” while a slide near $0.90 would completely reset the wave count. Maintaining either support preserves the broader bullish outlook.
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The Breakout Case
CasiTrades additionally details the requirements for a confirmed breakout. A sustained push toward $1.80, succeeded by turning $1.65 into a support floor, would indicate notable strength. She maintains long-term, double-digit objectives of $10, $13, and $16 linked to the evolving trend configuration, advising traders to keep a close eye on current prices as the subwaves unfold.