Prominent market analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) has drawn the XRP community’s attention to a video he insists every holder should watch.
With XRP navigating a pivotal technical zone over the past several weeks, he broke down his exact outlook and what it implies for the asset’s valuation.
A Pattern That Has Played Out Before
In the opening of the video, ChartNerd revisits June 2022, when XRP established its cycle bottom before surging 90% up to the blue 50-week EMA. Price action then consolidated above and between the red 20 EMA and the blue 50 for eight to nine weeks prior to facing a rejection. Once XRP broke below the 20 EMA, it retreated to range lows.
That price action formed a macro double bottom that successfully preserved its structure, ultimately fueling a breakout. ChartNerd points out that this historical setup closely resembles the developments he tracks today, explaining that XRP bottomed in August at $0.98, rallied toward the 50-week EMA, and has spent the last 10 weeks positioned underneath it.
$XRP holders must watch https://t.co/1pxf3J59ES
— ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) November 7, 2026
The 50-Week EMA Remains the Key Level
Throughout recent months, ChartNerd has maintained a consistent stance: “There’s no push higher until this moving average is cleared.” He adds that losing the 20 EMA opens a path back toward $1 or the lower $1 region he has been analyzing.
According to him, the architecture of the current move mirrors 2022 step-for-step—XRP bottomed, pushed into the 50-week EMA, and encountered rejection. Whether the market recovers hinges on its ability to sustain the $1.14 to $1.16 range.
Two Scenarios ChartNerd is Watching
If XRP manages to defend the $1.14 to $1.16 bracket and carve out a higher low, a retest of the August lows might be avoided, representing the more favorable scenario.
At the same time, ChartNerd stresses that the recent rejection from the EMAs carries weight. Characterizing it as “quite a strong rejection,” he urges traders to stay prepared for a potential retreat toward the daily chart’s double-bottom target sitting at $1.04, a level recently broken down on the daily timeframe.
What ChartNerd Expects Now
ChartNerd does not rule out further downward pressure, highlighting the deterioration of market structure as his primary reason for caution. He notes that the 2022 analog demonstrated how a market can maintain its structure, print a double bottom, and execute a breakout even after undergoing a steep correction following a 90% rally.
Ultimately, he views the current setup as tracking a very similar trajectory, with the two prospective outcomes being the creation of a higher low around $1.14 to $1.16 or a descent back down to $1.04.