Crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@ali_charts) has been monitoring a confluence of signals across the XRP market that point toward a potential drop to $0.98. His evaluation encompasses whale activity, exchange inventory, and a technical chart formation that carries significant weight for the asset’s immediate price trajectory.
Large Holders Are Reducing Exposure
Martinez pointed out that prominent whales on the XRP Ledger seem to be scaling back their holdings. He noted that wallets containing between 10 million and 100 million XRP decreased from 351 to 339 over the last few weeks.
According to the analyst, this drop increases the likelihood of heightened selling pressure. A reduction in the count of active large-holder wallets in that tier marks a notable shift in how XRP supply is distributed.
2/5 Some of the largest whales on the XRP Ledger appear to be reducing their exposure.
The number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million $XRP has fallen from 351 to 339 over the past few weeks.
That decline raises the possibility of growing selling pressure. pic.twitter.com/xgh8WVtJrD
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 25, 2026
Exchange Balances Are Rising
He subsequently drew attention to an increase in XRP stored on exchanges. Martinez shared that the amount of $XRP on trading platforms grew from 11.003 billion to about 11.05 billion over the past week, representing roughly 50 million additional tokens sitting on exchanges.
He mentioned that if major holders persist in transferring tokens to exchanges, additional supply becomes primed for liquidation. In the crypto markets, growing exchange reserves frequently precede heavier selling volume.
A Key Technical Level to Watch
Transitioning to technical analysis, Martinez pinpointed $1.26 as a crucial support line, explaining that XRP has maintained a channel boundary at that price point since August.
He indicated that dropping beneath that support “could first send XRP toward $1.11.” From his perspective, the channel pattern ultimately suggests a move down to $0.98, which is approximately 22% under the $1.26 mark.
The Bearish Case Comes into Focus
The analyst’s 4-hour chart for XRP displayed price action tightening near the channel’s lower edge. With attention centered on the $1.26 threshold, the chart demonstrated why proximity to this support gains importance given the preceding on-chain data.
Martinez wrapped up by outlining the bearish thesis, pointing to three main drivers behind the outlook: “fewer large-holder wallets, elevated exchange balances, and a break below $1.26.” Together, these factors mutually reinforce one another.
The mix of falling whale wallet tallies, increasing exchange supplies, and a weakening technical setup builds a strong argument for downward pressure on XRP in the short term. The ability of the $1.26 level to hold will ultimately decide whether the $0.98 price target becomes a reality.