As XRP moves into October 2026 on the heels of three straight months of positive returns, crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has analyzed an uncommon set of historical patterns. By comparing past October performances with recent monthly figures, the analyst pointed out a distinct shift in the current market structure.
In a social media post, Egrag Crypto examined 13 Octobers dating back to 2013, noting that XRP closed five of those months in positive territory and eight in negative territory.
These figures translate to a 38.5% positive close rate and a 61.5% negative close rate for October. Additionally, the analyst computed an average October return of -5.5% alongside a median return of -3.2%.
#XRP – OCTOBER HISTORY SAYS RED… BUT 2026 IS DIFFERENT :
Forget emotions. LOOK AT THE NUMBERS.
Since 2013, #XRP has completed 13 Octobers:
5 GREEN – 38.5%
8 RED – 61.5%
Average October: −5.5%
But it gets MORE interesting.
When September… pic.twitter.com/PxKD5WXGFw— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) October 1, 2026
Green September Has Usually Preceded A Decline
Egrag Crypto then investigated how XRP performed whenever September closed with a profit, identifying seven instances that fit this criterion.
Out of those seven cases, XRP finished the subsequent October down in six of them, with only a single October delivering a positive return. This results in an 85.7% probability for a negative outcome and a 14.3% probability for a positive one within that sample.
The data points toward a clear inclination for weaker performance following a green September. Egrag Crypto utilized these metrics to emphasize the seasonal headwinds XRP could encounter in October.
Nonetheless, XRP starts the current month with a unique variable absent from past comparisons.
XRP Records Gains In July, August And September
According to Egrag Crypto, XRP advanced 2.1% in July, 30.0% in August, and 8.0% in September, establishing a three-month streak of consecutive gains leading into October.
The analyst pointed out that XRP has never previously demonstrated this precise July-August-September sequence throughout the dataset shared in the update. Consequently, Egrag Crypto regards the present market conditions as significantly different from historical October precedents.
As a result, XRP faces two opposing statistical indicators: its historical October results lean bearish, while its recent price action displays ongoing monthly growth. Egrag Crypto raised the question of whether the digital asset will adhere to its traditional October pattern or pivot in the opposite direction this year.
We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1
— TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025
The Value Of Past Trends Questioned
Weighing in on the discussion, a commenter named Xeowolf doubted the usefulness of historical patterns when evaluating XRP’s trajectory, stating, “Sorry, these past trends don’t mean shit. A lot of instances over the last year + that the market bucked the trend.”
This perspective suggests that both XRP and the broader cryptocurrency market have frequently defied established norms over the past year and more.
Ultimately, Egrag Crypto’s analysis contrasts XRP’s historical October outcomes—which tend to skew negative—against its entry into the month following an unprecedented three-month winning streak.
Only October’s final results will reveal whether XRP stays true to its historical tendencies or charts a new course in 2026.