Cryptocurrency analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) has released a fresh assessment of XRP, detailing a pair of bearish pathways for the fourth quarter. Currently changing hands near $1.56, XRP is resting directly on its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA). ChartNerd points to this threshold as a pivotal junction, noting that subsequent price movement will dictate which path takes shape.
The Two Scenarios
Under the first scenario, XRP suffers a rejection between $1.50 and $1.60—close to the 50-week EMA—which triggers a Q4 retracement. In this case, the asset fails to win back the moving average and experiences an immediate sell-off.
The second scenario permits a brief rally into the $1.80 to $2 range to test what served as a crucial support floor in 2025. This area subsequently converts into resistance, paving the way for a more substantial fourth-quarter pullback.
Ultimately, both paths culminate in a downturn, with the sole distinction being the height XRP achieves before the descent begins.
I expect one of these $XRP scenarios to unfold over the coming weeks
Scenario 1: A rejection around the 50 week EMA between $1.50/$1.60, followed by a retrace in Q4.
Scenario 2: A move into the $1.80/$2 pocket to retest the 2025 support floor, before a deeper Q4 pullback. pic.twitter.com/JGZJiIU38O
— ChartNerd
(@ChartNerdTA) September 25, 2026
Reading the Chart
The provided chart maps out price action beginning in early 2025 alongside a forecasted downward trajectory extending into late 2026. Following a peak of $3.65 in July 2025, XRP underwent a sharp drop, hitting a floor near $1 in August. Two red horizontal lines highlight the critical thresholds: the lower line sits around $1.55, marking the rejection area for the first scenario, while the upper line rests near $2, designating the retest zone for the second.
Additionally, a downward-sloping white moving average spans the chart to reinforce the bearish market structure. The projected price paths indicate that both trajectories eventually merge on a downward slope as Q4 progresses.
A Proven Track Record
ChartNerd’s latest forecast commands attention due to past accuracy. Earlier in 2025, when the broader analytical consensus favored bullish XRP targets, he correctly anticipated that the digital asset would sweep below $1 by August. That successful contrarian stance has bolstered his credibility among market observers following his Q4 breakdown.
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— TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025
Where is XRP Going?
His viewpoint has not gone unchallenged; a critic recently countered with an optimistic projection. While ChartNerd acknowledged the long-term bullish case for XRP—and even referenced his own optimistic forecasts—he emphasized that macro upward trends do not invalidate short-term price fluctuations.
Having previously established a $27 target for 2030 alongside analyses pointing toward double-digit valuations over an extended timeline, ChartNerd maintains that the upcoming weeks will determine which path materializes. An inability to advance from current levels validates the first scenario, whereas a push toward $2 triggers the second before the anticipated correction takes hold. Either trajectory ultimately leads back to a Q4 retracement.