Earlier in 2026, market analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) issued a prediction that many XRP holders preferred to ignore: he forecasted that XRP would sweep below $1 in 2026. While a large portion of the community initially brushed off the call, the asset indeed slipped beneath $1 in August prior to staging a recovery up to a high of $1.68.
Having proven correct, ChartNerd has kept his overarching perspective unchanged. He has now alerted the community that renewed warning signs are surfacing, pointing to the possibility that XRP could test the $1 mark once more before the year concludes.
The Warning Signs Are Back
Currently changing hands at $1.27—marking a 2.4% decline over a 24-hour period—XRP is witnessing a deterioration in its technical setup, according to ChartNerd. He noted that the cryptocurrency is displaying “early warning signs that the pathway toward a deeper retrace to $1 is opening,” adding that this exact scenario has been on his radar for more than two months.
With the digital asset currently hovering near local support in the $1.25–$1.30 range, ChartNerd emphasizes that XRP must secure a weekly close above $1.34 to invalidate the risk of a more severe downward move. Lacking that threshold, the bearish trajectory remains active.
We're seeing early $XRP warning signs that the pathway toward a deeper retrace to $1 is opening. If it unfolds, don't panic; this has been on our radar for over 2 months. We remain around local support ($1.30/25) but need a weekly close above $1.34 to invalidate a deeper decline. https://t.co/lMYMnKjcFp
— ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) October 18, 2026
The Key Levels to Watch
Should local support hold, ChartNerd’s technical breakdown points to $1.45 as the primary resistance barrier that must be cleared. He notes that any short-term relief rally that caps out beneath that level and below the 50-week EMA “is still just relief before a $1.00 retest,” keeping his year-end outlook firmly intact.
His primary projection centers the bottom near $0.98. Although he views drops to $0.90 or $0.70 as distinctly less probable, they remain within the realm of possibility. Meanwhile, separate analysts have outlined even lower targets, setting sights as low as $0.65.
ChartNerd has consistently maintained that XRP needs to win back the 50-week EMA before any upward trend can be taken seriously.
How the Community Reacted
Responses to ChartNerd’s latest assessment were mixed across the board. One community member predicted a weekly close near $1.24, showing skepticism that the crucial $1.34 level would be defended. Another noted that the price had already dipped to $1.25, questioning if that zone would hold up.
Pessimism ran deeper for some, with one user calling for a drop to $0.88 and another proposing that a slide to $0.589 was back in play. Conversely, at least one community voice cautioned traders against blindly following ChartNerd’s forecast, pointing to the upcoming Swell conference as a potential bullish catalyst worth keeping in mind.
Where Things Stand
XRP finds itself at a crucial crossroads as it tests the $1.25–$1.30 support band. A successful weekly close above $1.34 would alter the near-term outlook. Without it, ChartNerd’s roadmap continues to signal a potential return to $1 ahead of the year’s end—leaving market participants watchful of a crypto analyst who accurately called the market’s movements once before.