Having navigated several major cycles with the help of the 21 EMA, XRP may now be setting the stage for its largest upward movement to date. In a technical breakdown shared on the 2-week timeframe, crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) pointed out that the digital asset is currently positioned at a historically vital inflection point.
The assessment focuses on how XRP interacts with the 21 EMA across different market phases, comparing current price actions to the patterns that preceded past surges.
How the 21 EMA Cycle Works
According to EGRAG CRYPTO, XRP’s price history reveals a recurring four-stage cycle. The pattern begins with Stage 1 at the cycle peak, transitions to Stage 2 during the initial pullback, enters Stage 3 as a phase of compression or consolidation, and concludes with Stage 4 as a final shakeout right before the 21 EMA is reclaimed and market expansion takes off.
On the 2-week chart, this exact structure has already played out twice: once in the aftermath of the 2018 peak and again following the 2021 cycle. In both instances, the completion of Stage 4 paved the way for massive upward movements.
#XRP – ARE WE AT STAGE 3 or 4 OF THE 21 EMA CYCLE?
Zoom out to the 2W timeframe. Look at how #XRP historically interacted with the 21 EMA:
1⃣ → 2⃣ → 3⃣ → 4⃣ → EXPANSIONAnd now?
I believe we could be sitting around STAGE 3 again and waiting for stage 4.
NOTE: Do… pic.twitter.com/DPwJxKmxfb
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) September 26, 2026
Where XRP Sits Today
EGRAG CRYPTO notes that XRP is presently situated at or close to Stage 3. The chart’s yellow 21 EMA line illustrates the price pressing against it from underneath following a corrective phase. The analyst remarked, “I believe we could be sitting around STAGE 3 again and waiting for stage 4.”
He further cautioned market participants not to be startled “if we still need a little more consolidation or even another dip before the real expansion begins.”
Key Price Levels to Watch
The study outlines a definitive Fibonacci framework. In the near term, the 0.786 retracement level at $1.67 serves as the immediate breakout threshold, while the 0.888 retracement sits at $2.40. The 1.0 level is established at $3.57, functioning as the primary breakout zone.
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— TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025
Looking further ahead, the macro extension targets point toward substantially loftier goals. The 1.272 extension aims for $9.36, the 1.414 extension targets $15.47, and the 1.618 extension points to the highest target of $31.87.
The Preferred Sequence
EGRAG CRYPTO maps out the precise trajectory he expects the chart to take. Stage 3 transitions into a consolidation or shakeout phase, which ultimately resolves into Stage 4. This is followed by the recovery of the 21 EMA and subsequent market expansion. He emphasizes that “the fractal doesn’t need to repeat candle-for-candle,” noting that the primary requirement is simply for the 21 EMA to execute its historical role once more.